S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
G E O L O G Y
Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory
Sturt W. Manning1*, Bernd Kromer2, Mauro Cremaschi3, Michael W. Dee4, Ronny Friedrich5, Carol Griggs1, Carla S. Hadden6
A single Northern Hemisphere calibration curve has formed the basis of radiocarbon dating in Europe and the Mediterranean for five decades, setting the time frame for prehistory. However, as measurement precision in- creases, there is mounting evidence for some small but substantive regional (partly growing season) offsets in
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC
INTRODUCTION
Relevance of IntCal to the Mediterranean
Since the late 1960s, the principal basis for a calendar time scale for pre- and protohistoric archaeology in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is via radiocarbon (14C) dating, with specific calendar age estimates for objects, contexts, sites, and cultures derived from comparison of measured 14C dates with a common NH radiocarbon calibration curve. In consequence, considerable effort focuses on the develop- ment of an increasingly accurate and long 14C calibration curve for the NH
1Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Department of Classics,
*Corresponding author. Email: sm456@cornell.edu
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020
Fig. 1A]. In recent years, some time series of 14C measurements on dendrochronologically dated wood have been reported, indicating small offsets between the reporting laboratory and IntCal for vari- ous intervals (10, 12, 13), but the assumption has been that there is either a small laboratory offset or the need to correct (improve) IntCal. The notion of an underlying globally valid midlatitude NH calibration curve has remained.
However, data measurements in recent years challenge this con- venient belief. Various small offsets in contemporary (same calen- dar years) 14C levels are reported for
1 of 13
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
Fig. 1. Hd 14C data and comparisons. (A) Hd and some Mannheim (MAMS) data on
(AA)data on Jordan juniper (JJ) (18). Calendar dates B.P. (before the present) (from
1950 CE) are shown. The differences [weighted averages (wAV)] in 14C age between the pairs of data from time series of similar blocks of tree rings with the same mid- point age from GeO,
conditions to resolve seasonal, or regional (growing season), or sim- ilar NH latitudinal differences (6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 17, 26, 27).
The Jordanian and Egyptian cases (16, 18, 23) suggest that a re- curring Mediterranean region offset, versus just a few special cases exhibiting impacts of major solar minima or
The focus on differences between growing seasons, versus simply latitude, is highlighted by considering a Mediterranean case, which does not have a
Differences in typical growing season and 14C offsets
The potential importance of a diverging (i.e.,
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
2 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
climate regime. Therefore, the issue of potential growing
“The bristlecone pine samples represent a c. 45 day growth season from mid to late June until late July or early August, with limited potential for photosynthesis outside the growing season. The oak latewood samples represent late May/June. Together, they represent the main growth season in the Mediterranean.”
However, the growing seasons for this wood are not, in fact, co- eval with the typical
to winter, moving this crop back partly out of kilter by a few months versus NH trees (19).
Therefore, at times when the positive Mediterranean growing sea- son offset might be anticipated as possibly relevant, such as a major reversal and plateau in the 14C calibration curve ~1610 to 1530 BCE (4), the relevant information likely does not come from BCP or IrO or the current IntCal. Instead, we need information from a Mediterranean source reflecting the typical Mediterranean growing season and the comparison of this against IntCal. Furthermore, this comparison needs to avoid the complication of likely interlaboratory variation. Data from the two areas should be compared via measurements at the same laboratory under the same conditions.
We address this topic here: Are there recurring episodes of dif- ferences in contemporary 14C levels that affect the very assumption, and use, of a common
RESULTS
Mediterranean 14C offsets
Conventional
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
3 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
series is compared over its entire extent against the GeO- and
Fig. 2. Comparisons of the 1- or
of those years exhibit a positive offset, i.e., an offset value above
At the same time, we must also note the reverse observation: At various intervals, particularly where we compare data measured at the same Hd laboratory, there are also some periods of similar scale substantive negative 14C offsets (Fig. 2B). For example, applying the same criteria as above but in reverse, the periods 3654.5 to 3618.5 cal B.P. (1705.5 to 1669.5 BCE) and 3485.5 to 3458.5 cal B.P. (1536.5 to 1509.5 BCE) exhibit negative offsets of (weighted averages) −38.1 ±
2.314C years B.P. and −24.1 ± 3.4 14C years B.P. These two occurrences correspond with stronger slopes in the 14C calibration curve with de- clining 14C ages B.P. The comparison with IntCal04 in Fig. 2A would also suggest some other likely sustained negative offsets periods, for ex- ample, 3424 to 3400 cal B.P. and 3395 to 3329 cal B.P. (1475 to 1451 BCE and 1446 to 1380 BCE) and 2906 to 2847 cal B.P. (957 to 898 BCE). Again, these are periods where there is a sustained slope in the IntCal record [indicating increased 14C production and, likely, lower solar irradiance (6, 15, 26)] and steadily declining 14C values. These negative offsets, while not the focus of the present paper, will also be relevant to
We carried out two further independent Mediterranean region tests of this situation through examination of time series of 14C dates run at laboratories other than Hd: first, on Quercus sp. samples from the Noceto (NOC) site in northern Italy (table S1) (19) and, second, on a Pinus brutia sample from earlier Iron Age Oymaağaç Höyük (OYM) in north central Turkey (table S1) (19). The NOC time series covering the
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
4 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
Fig. 3. Comparison of the NOC and OYM data versus Hd GeO, Hd GOR, IntCal13 (1 SD band), and AA BCP and AA IrO (13). (A) GrM data (weighted averages) on the NOC oak samples (table S1) as best placed ( ± ) via a wiggle match (39) versus Hd GOR (Fig. 2A). (B) The GrM, UGAMS, and Tübitak data on the OYM pine sample (table S1) shown as best placed ( ± ) versus IntCal13 (4). The shaded areas indi- cate (A) the earlier 16th century BCE offset in the NOC and Hd GOR data and (B) the mixed GrM and UGAMS signal for OYM versus IntCal13.
between the data from the two laboratories providing measurements is, however, evident. The three Groningen MICADAS (GrM) data do indicate a substantive offset of 28.5 ± 14.2 14C years, whereas the University of Georgia AMS (UGAMS) data (n = 8) rather indicate the reverse with a difference of −17.1 ± 7.3 14C years. This situation high- lights the challenge of interlaboratory variation at high resolution. None- theless, the strength of time series
The GOR and NOC data indicate the earlier 16th century BCE as a Mediterranean positive offset instance of the type and scale of those observed in the Jordan cases in the second millennium CE (18), notably
for both the central Mediterranean (NOC) and the east Mediterranean (GOR), demonstrating wider area relevance, but the negative (or un- clear) OYM case demonstrates that such a clear, substantive offset does not necessarily occur in every case and perhaps not in cases of more minor 14C reversals [the 2820 to 2785 cal B.P. (871 to 836 BCE) interval indicated in Fig. 2A partly overlaps the OYM series, but it is the smallest of the offset intervals noted (13.2 ± 3.5 14C years) for the Hd GOR time series]. This suggests that there may be an effect thresh- old and that, perhaps, additional factors associated with at least some major and sustained 14C reversals must also come into play to create the observed substantive 14C offset episodes. Hence, positive identi- fication of other offset intervals will require further direct work and data. In the interim, the GOR and NOC data confirm the potential relevance and scale of a temporally fluctuating Mediterranean offset (18) over the longer term and as relevant to prehistoric dating at high resolution in the Mediterranean region (Figs. 2A and 3A). For the Mediterranean, this means that 14C calibration curves constructed from data from midlatitude NH trees, such as IntCal (4), are poten- tially less appropriate, especially during periods of major and sus- tained 14C reversals.
Interlaboratory 14C differences
The Hd GeO versus GOR comparison in the earlier 16th century BCE highlights a difference, a 14C offset, that is independent of variations in absolute values achieved by different laboratories. There is a long history of even the most accurate 14C laboratories systematically vary- ing in age determinations for contemporary samples compared with other laboratories by up to ~30 14C years (1, 2). Recent work mea- suring
As discussed above, neither the BCP nor latewood IrO is a good representation of the main
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
5 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
offset GOR samples across this period (Fig. 2B) if they were measured at AA (see below).
The AA findings and other recent work raise concerns over the comparability of
Other Mediterranean region data can offer some control on the scale of the possible AMS versus LLGPC issue. An OxA AMS 14C study comparing 18th to 19th century CE annual plant material from Egypt versus the LLGPC NH calibration curve (unstated, but IntCal04/09) obtained an average offset of 19 ± 5 14C years (16), and a comparison of the large New Kingdom
possible systematic offset of a set of 14C data versus the reference curve with a normally distributed likelihood) with a mean of ~18 14C years (generalized as ~20 ± 5 14C years in the text of ref. (23) ; we use this SD below) against LLGPC IntCal04 [(23) at fig. 3] [we note that in five reruns of this model against IntCal04, we achieved R test 0,10 ± results of 15.0 ± 10.4 to 17.8 ± 4.8 14C years and that using the in- formation added in the table S1 addendum to (23), we achieved lower values for a R test 0,10 across five runs of ± : 11.3 ± 5.4 to 12.0 ± 5.9 14C years]. A
4.0± 8.3 14C years. In each of these cases, this offset includes the Mediterranean offset. If we maintain the same LLGPC IntCal04/09 reference value [the recent tree ring part of the two calibration curves was the same (2, 3)] and an OxCal R 0,10 test, then the OxA and AA Jordan juniper AMS 14C offsets (18) are ( ± ) 18.2 ± 2.8 and
18.1± 4.1 14C years, respectively. All these values are noticeably in a very similar range. They include both any average AMS to LLGPC difference and the average Mediterranean offset. The equivalent com- parison of the LLGPC Hd GOR series versus the LLGPC IntCal04 dataset yields an OxCal R value of 9.2 ± 2.5 14C years. This offset includes only the Mediterranean offset since it is an LLGPC versus LLGPC comparison. Therefore, this comparison leaves the possi- bly relevant remaining AMS
2.1± 6.0 to 2.8 ± 6.7), −5.2 ± 8.7, 9.0 ± 3.8, and 8.9 ± 4.8 14C years. We could reasonably generalize all this information as ≤10 14C years. We consider the relevance of this issue below.
DISCUSSION
Egyptian history and 14C offsets
Our findings identify and highlight the relevance of a recurring variable growing season positive 14C offset for the
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
6 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
Fig. 4. Two example chronological ramifications from the Mediterranean 14C record and offsets indicated by the Hd GOR dataset. (A) Egyptian date series as reported and placed against IntCal04 (23) compared with Hd GOR curve from Fig. 2A (curves are shown as 1 SD bands, and data were plotted as 1 SD ranges of 14C ages and modeled calendar age ranges). Data that are almost certain to be out- liers (23) have white center points. Cyan box indicates weighted average 14C (1 SD) and calendar range for Tutankhamun (Tut). Inset: Modeled placement 68.2 and 95.4% highest posterior density (hpd) of Tut against IntCal13 (4) from the OxCal model in (24) and compared with IntCal04 (2) and Hd GOR (Fig. 2A). (B) The difference in 13th century BCE dating probability comparing the calendar age probabilities for 3035 ± 15 14C years B.P. from the Hd GOR data (Fig. 2A) versus IntCal13 calibration curve (4). Data from OxCal (59) with curve resolution set to 1 year.
IntCal13 and comparing against IntCal04 and Hd GOR similarly shows a likely best fit versus the Hd GOR range (Fig. 4A, inset).
Eight apparent offset intervals for attention
Within our study, eight periods are noted where substantive offsets likely associated with a typical Mediterranean growing season are evident. These periods for further attention are indicated in Fig. 2A and table S2 [the grand solar minimum period 750 ± 60 BCE (50) likely reflects a different process (15)]. Some of these periods of re- versals and plateaus in the atmospheric 14C record are moreover likely associated with climate change episodes since marked changes in 14C production and availability in the troposphere in the Holocene re- flect changes in solar activity and ocean systems (51, 52) and, thus,
may sometimes be associated with periods of cultural transition. For example, the time intervals around the termination of the Late Bronze Age
Thera/Santorini eruption date
The earlier 16th century BCE Mediterranean offset identified above in the Hd GOR and GrM NOC datasets is particularly relevant to a
We can assess the implications and remaining uncertainties. The calibrated calendar probabilities for dating the Santorini eruption following two published methods (55, 56) can be compared with the Hd GOR scenario. If we rerun these analyses with the Hd GOR cal- ibration dataset (as in Fig. 2A) with its revision of the earlier mid– 16th century BCE 14C values to reflect Mediterranean conditions and regional offset, we find that the results support a later 17th century
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
7 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
BCE date range for the Thera eruption, including the entire most likely 68.2% highest posterior density (hpd) ranges (Fig. 5, A and B; 1649 to 1617 BCE and 1680 to 1613 BCE, respectively). We may also reconsider the dating of the Thera olive branch sample, found buried in the Thera eruption pumice (58), modeled as an ordered sequence of older to more recent wood to obtain a dating estimate for the out- ermost dated sample (13, 54) against the Hd GOR dataset (Fig. 5C). This places all the 68.2% hpd range in the 17th century BCE and most (76.6% versus 18.7%) of the 95.4% hpd range at or before 1610 BCE and hence again likely indicates a later 17th century BCE date range. Thus, the
The remaining caveat is the issue of whether there is, in addition, a typical AMS
Fig. 5. Calendar dating probability estimates for the Santorini/Thera volcanic destruction level from the data and models in (55) (cyan) and (56) (magenta) and the olive branch outer dated segment (13, 54, 58) (green) given changing calibration scenarios (39, 59). (A to C) With Hd GOR calibration dataset in Fig. 2A. (D and E) Application of a hypothetical addition of +10 14C years to Hd GOR to reflect a putative AMS 14C offset to LLGPC measurements. (F and G) Application of a hypo- thetical +15 14C years. (H and I) Application of a hypothetical +20 14C years. (J and K) Application a hypothetical +25 14C years. Main hpd regions are those contiguous intervals identified within the overall 95.4% hpd ranges.
(Fig. 5C), which is consistent with the analysis of sets of AMS 14C data against the Hd GOR dataset (Fig. 5, A and B). This suggests the re- ality of an additional AMS
The situation could change if future work can, to the contrary, robustly demonstrate a much larger standard AMS
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
8 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
Fig. 6. Hypothetical calendar dating probability estimates for the Santorini/ Thera volcanic destruction level from the data and models in (55) (cyan) and (56) (magenta) and the olive branch outer dated segment (13, 54, 58) (green) using a likely maximum possible change scenario. (A to C) With AA BCP calibration dataset (13) with a curve resolution of 5 years (smoothing the noisy
in Fig. 6 illustrate the extreme alternative dating scenarios. The pub- lished AA BCP record (Fig. 6, A to C) creates an ambiguous situa- tion: A clear probability region remains in the late 17th century BCE to early 16th century BCE, but there is also considerable probability in the
Overall, our findings, both the periods of positive 14C offsets that we focus on in this paper, as well as the instances of periods of neg-
ative offsets noted above, in addition to other indications of similar Mediterranean or seasonal 14C offsets (8,
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Experimental design
The main aim of this study is to compare time series of radiocarbon (14C) measurements on tree ring samples and, in particular, to com- pare data from trees with typical
The tree ring series wiggle matches (39) and calibrated calendar dating probabilities shown in Figs. 2 to 5 were obtained using the OxCal software (59). OxCal version 4.3.2 was used, except for the anal- ysis in Fig. 4A, which used version 4.1.7 as did the reruns of the mod- el in (23) mentioned in the main text (Results). Curve resolution of 1 year was used. For discussion and information about the use of OxCal and the specific outlier models and coding, see the Sup- plementary Materials (19).
Statistical analysis
Radiocarbon calibration and wiggle matching used the OxCal soft- ware (19, 59) as noted. Interpolation of 14C time series to
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
9 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
are involved, the midpoint is treated as year 5.5 of the series, and
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/ content/full/6/12/eaaz1096/DC1
Supplementary Materials and Methods
Fig. S1. Comparisons of some ETH AMS 14C data on
Fig. S2. Comparison of Hd GeO LLGPC measurements (38) with OxA AMS 14C measurements on similar GeO (24).
Fig. S3. Comparison of the OxA AMS 14C measurements versus Hd LLGPC measurements on Anatolian juniper samples from a Middle Bronze Age dendrochronological time series built from Juniperus sp. samples from the archaeological sites of Kültepe, Acemhöyük, and Karahöyük (46).
Fig. S4. Comparison of Keck Carbon Cycle Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Laboratory, University of California, Irvine AMS 14C dates on
Fig. S5. Comparison of AMS 14C data versus Hd LLGPC 14C ages for similar Swedish pine. Fig. S6.
Fig. S7. The indexed tree ring series comprising the NOC Quercus sp. chronology. Fig. S8. The tree ring measurements of the
Table S1. 14C data used in this paper for Figs. 1 to 3 and figs. S1 and S5. Table S2. The nine offset periods identified in Fig. 2A.
References
REFERENCES AND NOTES
1.M. Stuiver, P. J. Reimer, T. F. Braziunas,
2.P. J. Reimer, M. G. L. Baillie, E. Bard, A. Bayliss, J. W. Beck, C. J. H. Bertrand, P. G. Blackwell, C. E. Buck, G. S. Burr, K. B. Cutler, P. E. Damon, R. L. Edwards, R. G. Fairbanks, M. Friedrich, T. P. Guilderson, A. G. Hogg, K. A. Hughen, B. Kromer, G. M. Cormac, S. Manning, C. B. Ramsey, R. W. Reimer, S. Remmele, J. R. Southon, M. Stuiver, S. Talamo, F. W. Taylor, J. van der Plicht, C. E. Weyhenmeyer, IntCalo4 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration,
3.P. J. Reimer, M. G. L. Baillie, E. Bard, A. Bayliss, J. W. Beck, P. G. Blackwell, C. Bronk Ramsey, C. E. Buck, G. S. Burr, R. L. Edwards, M. Friedrich, P. M. Grootes, T. P. Guilderson, I. Hajdas, T. J. Heaton, A. G. Hogg, K. A. Hughen, K. F. Kaiser, B. Kromer, F. G. McCormac, S. W. Manning, R. W. Reimer, D. A. Richards, J. R. Southon, S. Talamo, C. S. M. Turney, J. van der Plicht, C. E. Weyhenmeyer, IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves,
4.P. J. Reimer, M. G. L. Baillie, E. Bard, A. Bayliss, J. W. Beck, P. G. Blackwell, C. B. Ramsey, C. E. Buck, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, M. Friedrich, P. M. Grootes, T. P. Guilderson, H. Haflidason, I. Hajdas, C. Hatté, T. J. Heaton, D. L. Hoffmann, A. G. Hogg, K. A. Hughen, K. F. Kaiser, B. Kromer, S. W. Manning, M. Niu, R. W. Reimer, D. A. Richards, E. M. Scott, J. R. Southon, R. A. Staff, C. S. M. Turney, J. van der Plicht, IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves
5.T. F. Braziunas, I. Y. Fung, M. Stuiver, The preindustrial atmospheric 14CO2 latitudinal gradient as related to exchanges among atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoirs.
Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9,
6.M. Stuiver, T. F. Braziunas, Anthropogenic and solar components of hemispheric 14C.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 25,
7.Q. Hua, M. Barbetti, A. R. Rakowski, Atmospheric radiocarbon for the period
8.U. Büntgen, L. Wacker, J. D. Galván, S. Arnold, D. Arseneault, M. Baillie, J. Beer, M. Bernabei, N. Bleicher, G. Boswijk, A. Bräuning, M. Carrer, F. C. Ljungqvist, P. Cherubini, M. Christl, D. A. Christie, P. W. Clark, E. R. Cook, R. D’Arrigo, N. Davi, Ó. Eggertsson, J. Esper, A. M. Fowler, Z.’. Gedalof, F. Gennaretti, J. Grießinger,
I. Panyushkina, N. Pederson, M. Rybníček, F. H. Schweingruber, A. Seim, M. Sigl, O. Churakova, J. H. Speer, H. A. Synal, W. Tegel, K. Treydte, R. Villalba, G. Wiles, R. Wilson, L. J. Winship, J. Wunder, B. Yang, G. H. F. Young, Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE. Nat. Commun. 9, 3605 (2018).
9.J. Uusitalo, L. Arppe, T. Hackman, S. Helama, G. Kovaltsov, K. Mielikäinen, H. Mäkinen, P. Nöjd, V. Palonen, I. Usoskin, M. Oinonen, Solar superstorm of AD 774 recorded subannually by Arctic tree rings. Nat. Commun. 9, 3495 (2018).
10.R. Friedrich, B. Kromer, F. Sirocko, J. Esper, S. Lindauer, D. Nievergelt, K. U. Heussner, T. Westphal, Annual 14C
11.E. M. Scott, G. T. Cook, P. Naysmith, R. A. Staff, Learning from the wood samples in ICS, TIRI, FIRI, VIRI, and SIRI. Radiocarbon 61,
12.D. Güttler, L. Wacker, B. Kromer, M. Friedrich,
Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294,
13.C. L. Pearson, P. W. Brewer, D. Brown, T. J. Heaton, G. W. L. Hodgins, A. J. T. Jull, T. Lange, M. W. Salzer, Annual radiocarbon record indicates 16th century BCE date for the Thera eruption. Sci. Adv. 4, eaar8241 (2018).
14.F. G. McCormac, M. G. L. Baillie, J. R. Pilcher, R. M. Kalin,
15.B. Kromer, S. W. Manning, P. I. Kuniholm, M. W. Newton, M. Spurk, I. Levin, Regional 14CO2 offsets in the troposphere: Magnitude, mechanisms, and consequences. Science 294,
16.M. W. Dee, F. Brock, S. A. Harris, C. B. Ramsey, A. J. Shortland, T. F. G. Higham, J. M. Rowland, Investigating the likelihood of a reservoir offset in the radiocarbon record for ancient Egypt. J. Archaeol. Sci. 37,
17.S. W. Manning, M. W. Dee, E. M. Wild, C. Bronk Ramsey, K. Bandy, P. P. Creasman, C. B. Griggs, C. L. Pearson, A. J. Shortland, P. Steier,
18.S. W. Manning, C. Griggs, B. Lorentzen, C. Bronk Ramsey, D. Chivall, A. J. T. Jull, T. E. Lange, Fluctuating radiocarbon offsets observed in the southern Levant and implications for archaeological chronology debates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115,
19.See supplementary materials.
20.C. Appenzeller, J. R. Holton, K. H. Rosenlof, Seasonal variation of mass transport across the tropopause. J. Geophys. Res. 101 (D10),
21.A. Stohl, P. Bonasoni, P. Cristofanelli, W. Collins, J. Feichter, A. Frank, C. Forster, E. Gerasopoulos, H. Gäggeler, P. James,
22.I. Levin, T. Naegler, B. Kromer, M. Diehl, R. J. Francey,
23.C. Bronk Ramsey, M. W. Dee, J. M. Rowland, T. F. G. Higham, S. A. Harris, F. Brock, A. Quiles, E. M. Wild, E. S. Marcus, A. J. Shortland,
24.S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, M. W. Dee, M. Friedrich, T. F. G. Higham, C. B. Ramsey, Radiocarbon calibration in the mid to later 14th century BC and radiocarbon dating at Tell
25.P. J. Reimer, K. A. Hughen, T. P. Guilderson, G. McCormac, M. G. L. Baillie, E. Bard, P. Barratt, J. Warren Beck, C. E. Buck, P. E. Damon, M. Friedrich, B. Kromer, C. Bronk Ramsey, R. W. Reimer, S. Remmele, J. R. Southon, M. Stuiver, J. van der Plicht, Preliminary report of the first workshop of the IntCal04 radiocarbon calibration/comparison working group. Radiocarbon 44,
26.L. McDonald, D. Chivall, D. Miles, C. Bronk Ramsey, Seasonal variations in the 14C content of tree rings: Influences on radiocarbon calibration
27.S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, C. Bronk Ramsey, C. L. Pearson, S. Talamo, N. Trano, J. D. Watkins, 14C record
28.J. M. Marston, Agricultural Sustainability and Environmental Change at Ancient Gordion
(University of Pennsylvania Museum Press, 2017).
29.O. Gordo, J. J. Sanz, Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems. Glob. Chang. Biol. 16,
30.R. M. Trigo, T. J. Osborn,
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
10 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
31.A. Nicault, S. Alleaume, S. Brewer, M. Carrer, P. Nola, J. Guiot, Mediterranean drought fluctuation during the last 500 years based
32.T. Felis, M. Ionita, N. Rimbu, G. Lohmann, M. Kölling, Mild and arid climate in the eastern
33.T. M. Kuster, M. Dobbertin,
34.E. E. Pflug, R. Siegwolf, N. Buchmann, M. Dobbertin, T. M. Kuster,
35.N. Köse, Ü. Akkemik, H. N. Dalfes, M. S. Özeren, D. Tolunay,
36.M. G. L. Baillie,
37.G. Helle, G. H. Schleser, Seasonal variations of stable carbon isotopes from
38.B. Kromer, S. W. Manning, M. Friedrich, S. Talamo, N. Trano, 14C calibration in the 2nd and 1st millennia
39.C. Bronk Ramsey, J. van der Plicht, B. Weninger, ‘Wiggle matching’ radiocarbon dates. Radiocarbon 43,
40.R. E. Taylor, J. Southon, Reviewing
14C/bristlecone pine data. Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. 294,
41.A. J. Jull, I. P. Panyushkina, T. E. Lange, V. V. Kukarskih, V. S. Myglan, K. J. Clark, M. W. Salzer, G. S. Burr, S. W. Leavitt, Excursions in the 14C record at A.D.
42.F. Miyake, A. J. T. Jull, I. P. Panyushkina, L. Wacker, M. Salzer, C. H. Baisan, T. Lange, R. Cruz, K. Masuda, T. Nakamura, Large 14C excursion in 5480 BC indicates an abnormal sun
43.A. Hogg, C. Turney, J. Palmer, J. Southon, B. Kromer, C. B. Ramsey, G. Boswijk, P. Fenwick, A. Noronha, R. Staff, M. Friedrich, L. Reynard, D. Guetter, L. Wacker, R. Jones, The New Zealand kauri (Agathis Australis) research project: A radiocarbon dating intercomparison of younger dryas wood and implications for IntCal13. Radiocarbon 55,
44.B. Kromer, S. Lindauer,
45.S. Hammer, R. Friedrich, B. Kromer, A. Cherkinsky, S. J. Lehman, H. A. J. Meijer, T. Nakamura, V. Palonen, R. W. Reimer, A. M. Smith, J. R. Southon, S. Szidat, J. Turnbull, M. Uchida, Compatibility of atmospheric 14CO2 measurements: Comparing the Heidelberg
46.S. W. Manning, C. B. Griggs, B. Lorentzen, G. Barjamovic, C. B. Ramsey, B. Kromer, E. M. Wild, Integrated
47.C. Tyers, J. Sidell, J. Van der Plicht, P. Marshall, G. Cook, C. Bronk Ramsey, A. Bayliss,
48.A. Bayliss, P. Marshall, Confessions of a serial polygamist: The reality of radiocarbon reproducibility in archaeological samples. Radiocarbon 61,
49.D. Aston, Radiocarbon, wine jars and New Kingdom chronology. Ägypten und Levante
50.I. G. Usoskin, Y. Gallet, F. Lopes, G. A. Kovaltsov, G. Hulot, Solar activity during the Holocene: The Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima. Astron. Astrophys. 587, A150 (2016).
51.M. Stuiver, T. F. Braziunas, Sun, ocean, climate and atmospheric 14CO2: An evaluation of causal and spectral relationships. The Holocene 3,
52.G. Bond, B. Kromer, J. Beer, R. Muscheler, M. N. Evans, W. Showers, S. Hoffmann,
53.A. B. Knapp, S. W. Manning, Crisis in context: The end of the Late Bronze Age in the eastern Mediterranean. Am. J. Archaeol. 120,
54.S. W. Manning, F. Höflmayer, N. Moeller, M. W. Dee, C. B. Ramsey, D. Fleitmann, T. Higham, W. Kutschera, E. M. Wild, Dating the Thera (Santorini) eruption: Archaeological and scientific evidence supporting a high chronology. Antiquity 88,
55.S. W. Manning, C. B. Ramsey, W. Kutschera, T. Higham, B. Kromer, P. Steier, E. M. Wild, Chronology for the Aegean Late Bronze Age
56.F. Höflmayer, The date of the Minoan Santorini eruption: Quantifying the “Offset”. Radiocarbon 54,
57.P. Warren, Archaeology: Absolute dating of the Bronze Age eruption of Thera (Santorini). Nature 308,
58.W. L. Friedrich, B. Kromer, M. Friedrich, J. Heinemeier, T. Pfeiffer, S. Talamo, Santorini eruption radiocarbon dated
59.C. Bronk Ramsey, Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates. Radiocarbon 51,
60.I. Levin, V. Hesshaimer,
61.J. T. Randerson, I. G. Enting, E. A. G. Schuur, K. Caldiera, I. Y. Fung, Seasonal and latitudinal variability of troposphere 14CO2: Post bomb contributions from fossil fuels, oceans, the stratosphere, and the terrestrial biosphere. Global Biogeochem. Cy. 16,
62.I. Levin, B. Kromer, The tropospheric 14CO2 level
63.I. Levin, J. Schuchard, B. Kromer, K. O. Münnich, The continental european suess effect. Radiocarbon 31,
64.I. Levin, B. Kromer, Twenty years of atmospheric 14Co2 observations at Schauinsland station, Germany. Radiocarbon 39,
65.Q. Hua, M. Barbetti, Review of tropospheric bomb 14C data for carbon cycle modeling and age calibration purposes. Radiocarbon 46,
66.F. Dellinger, W. Kutschera, K. Nicolussi, P. Schießling, P. Steier, E. Maria Wild, A 14C calibration with AMS from 3500 to 3000 BC, derived from a new
67.I. Levin, R. Bösinger, G. Bonani, R. J. Francey, B. Kromer, K. O. Münnich, M. Suter, N. B. A. Trivett, W. Wölfli, Radiocarbon in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane: Global distribution and trends, in Radiocarbon After Four Decades: An Interdisciplinary Perspective, R. E. Taylor, A. Long, R. Kra, Eds. (Springer, 1992),
68.H. Kitagawa, H. Mukai, Y. Nojiri, Y. Shibata, T. Kobayashi, T. Nojiri, Seasonal and secular variations of atmospheric 14Co2 over the western Pacific since 1994. Radiocarbon 46,
69.I. Levin, B. Kromer, M. Schmidt, H. Sartorius, A novel approach for independent budgeting of fossil fuel CO2 over europe by 14CO2 observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 2194 (2003).
70.P. E. Damon, S. Cheng, T. W. Linick, Fine and hyperfine structure in the spectrum of secular variations of atmospheric 14C. Radiocarbon 31,
71.P. E. Damon, A note concerning
72.P. E. Damon, G. Burr, W. J. Cain, D. J. Donahue, Anomalous
73.P. E. Damon, G. Burr, A. N. Peristykh, G. C. Jacoby, R. D. D’Arrigo, Regional radiocarbon effect due to thawing of frozen earth. Radiocarbon 38,
74.K. Suzuki, H. Sakurai, Y. Takahashi, T. Sato, S. Gunji, F. Tokanai, H. Matsuzaki, Y. Tsuchiya, Precise comparison of 14C ages from Choukai jindai cedar with IntCal04 raw data. Radiocarbon 52,
75.W. Hong, J. H. Park, G. Park, K. S. Sung, W. K. Park,
76.T. Nakamura, K. Masuda, F. Miyake, K. Nagaya, T. Yoshimitsu, Radiocarbon ages of annual rings from Japanese wood: Evident age offset based on IntCal09. Radiocarbon 55,
77.S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, P. I. Kuniholm, M. W. Newton, Anatolian
78.Q. Hua, M. Barbetti, Influence of atmospheric circulation on regional 14CO2 differences. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D19102 (2007).
79.P. Garnsey, Famine and Food Supply in the
80.S. Isager, J. E. Skydsgaard, Ancient Greek Agriculture: An Introduction (Routledge, 1992).
81.M. L. West, Hesiod, Works and Days (Clarendon Press, 1978).
82.P. Horden, N. Purcell, The Corrupting Sea: A Study of Mediterranean History (Blackwell, 2000).
83.M. S. Spurr, Arable Cultivation in Roman Italy, c. 200
84.R. Sallares, The Ecology of the Ancient Greek World (Duckworth, 1991).
85.P. Halstead, Two Oxen Ahead:
86.J. Oteros,
87.O. Borowski, Agriculture in Iron Age Israel (Eisenbrauns, 1987).
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
11 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
88.A. B. Stallsmith, Agrotika: The traditional agricultural year in the Vrokastro survey area, in Reports on the Vrokastro Area, Eastern Crete, Vol. 2. The Settlement History of the Vrokastro Area and Related Studies, B. J. Hayden, Ed. (University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, Univ. Museum Monograph, ed. 119, 2004), pp.
89.K. D. White, Roman Farming (Thames and Hudson, 1970).
90.F. E. Boag, “Integrated Mediterranean farming and pastoral systems: Local knowledge and ecological infrastructure of Italian dryland farming,” thesis, University of Alberta (1997);
91.W. J. Sacks, D. Deryng, J. A. Foley, N. Ramankutty, Crop planting dates: An analysis of global patterns. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19,
92.B. Kromer,
93.E. M. Scott, P. Naysmith, G. T. Cook, Should archaeologists care about 14C intercomparisons? why? A summary report on SIRI. Radiocarbon 59,
94.M. Friedrich, S. Remmele, B. Kromer, J. Hofmann, M. Spurk, K. Felix Kaiser, C. Orcel, M. Küppers, The
95.J. R. Pilcher, M. G. L. Baillie, B. Schmidt, B. Becker, A
96.K. Haneca, K. Čufar, H. Beeckman, Oaks,
97.X. Morin, J. Roy, L. Sonié, I. Chuine, Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change. New Phytol. 186,
98.P. I. Kuniholm, M. W. Newton, R. F. Liebhart, Dendrochronology at Gordion, in The New Chronology of Iron Age Gordion, C. B. Rose, G. Darbyshire, Eds. (University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, 2011),
99.G. Kahveci, M. Alan, N. Köse, Distribution of juniper stands and the impact of environmental parameters on growth
100. L. Wacker, G. Bonani, M. Friedrich, I. Hajdas, B. Kromer, M. Němec, M. Ruff, M. Suter,
101. M. W. Dee, S. W. L. Palstra,
102. A. Cherkinsky, R. A. Culp, D. K. Dvoracek, J. E. Noakes, Status of the AMS facility at the University of Georgia. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 268,
103. J. S. Vogel, J. R. Southon, D. E. Nelson, T. A. Brown, Performance of catalytically condensed carbon for use in accelerator mass spectrometry. Nucl. Instrum. Meth.B 5,
104. P. Marshall, A. Bayliss, S. Farid, C. Tyers, C. Bronk Ramsey, G. Cook, T. Doğan, S. P. H. T. Freeman, E. İlkmen, T. Knowles, 14C
105. M. B. Brea, M. Cremaschi, Acqua e Civiltà Nelle Terramare: La Vasca Votive di Noceto (Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, 2009).
106.F. H. Schweingruber, Tree Rings: Basics and Applications of Dendrochronology (D. Reidel, 1988).
107. P. W. Brewer, Data management in dendroarchaeology using Tellervo. Radiocarbon 56,
108. K. Harris, Corina 1.1. 2007 Version of a 2003 Release; https://dendro.cornell.edu/corina/ corina.php.
109. R. M. Czichon, J. Klinger, P. Hnila, D. P. Mielke, H. Böhm, C. Forster, C. Griggs, M. Kähler, G. K. Kunst, M. Lehmann, B. Lorentzen, S. Manning, K. Marklein, H. Marquardt, S. Reichmuth, J. Richter, C. Rössner, B. Sadıklar, K. Seufer, R. Sobott,
110. S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, Radiocarbon dating archaeological samples in the eastern Mediterranean, 1730 TO 1480 BC: Further exploring the atmospheric radiocarbon calibration record and the archaeological implications. Archaeometry 53,
111. S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, Considerations of the scale of radiocarbon offsets in the east Mediterranean, and considering a case for the latest (most recent) likely date for the santorini eruption. Radiocarbon 54,
112. C. Bronk Ramsey, Radiocarbon calibration and analysis of stratigraphy: The OxCal program. Radiocarbon 37,
113. C. Bronk Ramsey, Dealing with outliers and offsets in radiocarbon dating. Radiocarbon 51,
114. G. K. Ward, S. R. Wilson, Procedures for comparing and combining radiocarbon age determinations: A critique. Archaeometry 20,
115. T. Higham, K. Douka, R. Wood, C. B. Ramsey, F. Brock, L. Basell, M. Camps, A. Arrizabalaga, J. Baena,
116. W. A. Ward, M. S. Joukowsky, The Crisis Years: The 12th Century BC from beyond the Danube to the Tigris (Kendall Hunt, 1992).
117.R. Drews, The End of the Bronze Age: Changes in Warfare and the Catastrophe ca. 1200 B.C. (Princeton Univ. Press, 1993).
118.E. H. Cline, 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Princeton Univ. Press, 2014).
119.C. Broodbank, The Making of the Middle Sea. A History of the Mediterranean from the Beginning to the Emergence of the Classical World (Thames and Hudson, 2013).
120.G. D. Middleton, Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2017).
121. L. Welton, T. Harrison, S. Batiuk, E. Ünlü, B. Janeway, D. Karakaya, D. Lipovitch, D. Lumb, J. Roames, Shifting networks and community identity at Tell Tayinat in the Iron I
(ca. 12th to mid 10th century B.C.E.). Am. J. Archaeol. 123,
and the Greek Dark Ages. J. Archaeol. Sci. 39,
123. I. Neugebauer, A. Brauer, M. J. Schwab, P. Dulski, U. Frank, E. Hadzhiivanova, H. Kitagawa, T. Litt, V. Schiebel, N. Taha, N. D. Waldmann; DSDDP Scientific Party, Evidences for centennial dry periods at ~3300 and ~2800 cal. yr BP
124. I. Finkelstein, D. Langgut, M. Meiri,
125. M. Finné, K. Holmgren,
126. D. Kaniewski, N. Marriner, J. Bretschneider, G. Jans, C. Morhange, R. Cheddadi, T. Otto, F. Luce, E. Van Campo,
127. W. L. Friedrich, J. Heinemeier, The Minoan eruption of Santorini radiocarbon dated to 1613 ± 13
128. W. L. Friedrich, B. Kromer, M. Friedrich, J. Heinemeier, T. Pfeiffer, S. Talamo, The olive branch chronology stands irrespective
129. J. Heinemeier, W. L. Friedrich, B. Kromer, C. Bronk Ramsey, The Minoan eruption of Santorini radiocarbon dated by an olive tree buried by the eruption, in Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan Eruption of Santorini, D. A. Warburton, Ed. (The Danish Institute at Athens, 2009),
130. P. Cherubini, T. Humbel, H. Beeckman, H. Gärtner, D. Mannes, C. Pearson, W. Schoch, R. Tognetti,
131. P. Cherubini, T. Humbel, H. Beeckman, H. Gärtner, D. Mannes, C. Pearson, W. Schoch, R. Tognetti,
132. Y. Ehrlich, L. Regev, E. Boaretto, Radiocarbon analysis of modern olive wood raises doubts concerning a crucial piece of evidence in dating the Santorini eruption. Sci. Rep. 8, 11841 (2018).
133.S. W. Manning, A Test of Time Revisited (Oxbow, 2014).
134.D. A. Warburton, Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan Eruption of Santorini (The Danish Institute at Athens, 2009).
135. P. P. Betancourt, G. A. Weinstein,
136. B. J. Kemp, R. S. Merrillees, Minoan Pottery in Second Millennium Egypt (Philipp von Zabern, 1980).
137. P. P. Betancourt, Research notes and application reports dating the Aegean Late Bronze Age with radiocarbon. Archaeometry 29,
138.S. W. Manning, A Test of Time: The Volcano of Thera and the Chronology and History of the
Aegean and East Mediterranean in the
139. C. Bronk Ramsey, S. W. Manning, M. Galimberti, Dating the volcanic eruption at Thera. Radiocarbon 46,
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
12 of 13 |
S C I E N C E A D V A N C E S | R E S E A R C H A R T I C L E
140. H. J. Bruins, J. Keller, A. Klügel, H. J. Kisch, I. Katra, J. van der Plicht, Tephra in caves: Distal deposits of the Minoan Santorini eruption and the Campanian
141.E. H. Cline, Sailing the
142. T. Mühlenbruch, The absolute dating of the volcanic eruption of Santorini/Thera (periferia south
143. P. Warren, The date of the Late Bronze Age eruption of Santorini, in Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan Eruption of Santorini, D. A. Warburton, Ed. (The Danish Institute at Athens, 2009),
144. M. H. Wiener, The state of the debate about the date of the Thera eruption, in Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan Eruption of Santorini, D. A. Warburton, Ed. (The Danish Institute at Athens, 2009),
145. M. W. Salzer, M. K. Hughes, Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr. Quatern. Res. 67,
146. R. K. Ritner, N. Moeller, The Ahmose ‘Tempest Stela’, Thera and comparative chronology. J. Near Eastern Stud. 73,
147. J. McAneney, M. Baillie, Absolute
148. S. W. Manning, Events, Episodes and History: Chronology and the resolution of historical processes, in An Age of Experiment: Classical Archaeology Transformed
149. P. I. Kuniholm, Dendrochronologically dated Ottoman monuments, in A Historical Archaeology of the Ottoman Empire: Breaking New Ground, U. Baram, L. Carroll, Eds. (Plenum Publishers, 2000),
150. E. R. Cook, R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, K. R. Briffa, U. Büntgen, D. Frank, P. J. Krusic, W. Tegel, G. van der Schrier,
151. C. Groves, C. Locatelli,
152. H. Grudd,
Acknowledgments: We thank M. Friedrich for the GeO samples from the Hohenheim chronology, D. Brown for supplying the IrO samples from the Queen’s University Belfast chronology, D. P. Mielke and P. Hnila for the samples from OYM and sharing 14C dates on these and for collaboration on this material, and H. Grudd for supplying dendrochronologically dated Swedish pine. We thank C. Kocik and B. Lorentzen for work on the NOC and OYM tree ring samples. We thank M. Baillie for advice on IrOs. We thank the three referees for helpful and constructive comments. We acknowledge the Italian Ministry of Cultural Heritage and Activities (MiBAC) and the Municipality of NOC for supporting the archaeological excavation of the site. This work is part of the activities supported by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR) through the project “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza
Submitted 13 August 2019 Accepted 19 December 2019 Published 18 March 2020 10.1126/sciadv.aaz1096
Citation: S. W. Manning, B. Kromer, M. Cremaschi, M. W. Dee, R. Friedrich, C. Griggs, C. S. Hadden, Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory. Sci. Adv. 6, eaaz1096 (2020).
2020 20, July on org/.sciencemag.http://advances from Downloaded
Manning et al., Sci. Adv. 2020; 6 : eaaz1096 18 March 2020 |
13 of 13 |
Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory
Sturt W. Manning, Bernd Kromer, Mauro Cremaschi, Michael W. Dee, Ronny Friedrich, Carol Griggs and Carla S. Hadden
Sci Adv 6 (12), eaaz1096.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz1096
ARTICLE TOOLS |
|
SUPPLEMENTARY |
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2020/03/16/6.12.eaaz1096.DC1 |
MATERIALS |
|
REFERENCES |
This article cites 112 articles, 10 of which you can access for free |
|
|
PERMISSIONS |
Use of this article is subject to the Terms of Service
Science Advances (ISSN
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC